In the most obvious example of NFL teams not caring at all about your Fantasy Football teams, head coaches will purposely rest veteran starters when they have no incentive to play them. In other words, once a team’s playoff positioning is cemented, they’ll play their final game of the season without winning at all costs.
They still want to win; they’ll just do it without the players you’ve used to get to Week 18.
This is why most leagues don’t play into Week 18, or if they do, they usually make some fun game where everyone starts whoever they have left, and the best score of the week wins some sort of prize.
But meaningful Week 18 Fantasy Football matchups? That’s for the bold, the daring, the … demented.
We know some of you have no choice but to play into Week 18 because of how your league is set up. That’s why we’re going to warn you on who you won’t have for this year’s regular-season finale.
Nothing to play for
Chiefs
Playoff scenario: Locked into the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage with a bye.
History: In both 2020 and 2023, when Andy Reid’s team had nothing to play for, he rested his starters. We were treated to Chad Henne starting in 2020 and Blaine Gabbert in 2023 (that’s last year for all you geniuses who don’t remember). Typically, backups at RB and WR played with the backup.
This year: Expect Carson Wentz to handle the starter’s duties at QB and hand off frequently to rookie Carson Steele. At receiver, we’re likely to see a lot more of Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman; the latter had 13.7 PPR points in last year’s Week 18. There’s always the chance the Chiefs call up QB Chris Oladokun and WRs Justyn Ross and Tyquan Thornton from the practice squad.
You shouldn’t start: Any key Chiefs players with any expectations, including Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy.
Bills
Playoff scenario: Locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC with home-field advantage unless they play the Chiefs.
History: In 2019, Josh Allen started and threw five passes before giving way to Matt Barkley. Rushing reps were split between Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon, and Duke Williams was Buffalo’s top wideout that day.
This week: Allen will play a little bit, but chances are he’ll give way to Mitchell Trubisky long before halftime. This would also be a good game for Buffalo to get rookie Ray Davis some extended carries while keeping James Cook on the sideline. Tyrell Shavers earned more playing time after his 69-yard catch and run last week; he and Mack Hollins could be the team’s top receivers. Maybe rookie Keon Coleman plays a little bit because he’s a rookie working his way back into form after missing a lot of time.
You shouldn’t start: Any key Bills players with any expectations, including Allen, Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Kincaid.
Eagles
Playoff scenario: Locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC with home-field advantage unless they play the NFC North winner.
History: In both 2021 and 2023, Nick Sirianni rested his starting quarterback and only played primary starters for more than a few snaps if they had incentives. For instance, DeVonta Smith barely played in 2021 but did catch enough passes to break DeSean Jackson’s franchise records for most receptions and yards by a rookie. Otherwise, starters were given the week off.
This week: There have already been reports that do not expect Saquon Barkley to play even though he’s 101 rushing yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing yard record — and against his former team. Nick Sirianni told the media he hadn’t told his players his plans yet for Week 18, so until he does, we won’t know. But his track record suggests there will be some starters resting.
You shouldn’t start: Any Eagles receivers with any expectations, and the same will go for Barkley if he and the team opt to not chase Dickerson’s record. Of course, if he does decide to go for it, start him with massive expectations! Jalen Hurts isn’t likely to play much, if at all.
Texans
Playoff scenario: Locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC with home-field advantage in the first round.
History: None. Coach Demeco Ryans has his team in the playoffs for the second time in as many years as he’s been there, but it’s the first time he’s had a meaningless Week 18 game.
This week: Ryans said, “Everybody will be out there playing, and we’ll see how the game goes. But for us,
right now, we’ve got to go play better. And our last outing on the field was not good enough, not
representative of who we are defensively, offensively … it’s not a good representation of our team entirely.” Sounds like no one’s resting, and it might take past halftime before any backups get in.
You shouldn’t start: Anyone outside of Nico Collins, maybe Joe Mixon, and maybe Dalton Schultz. It’s still a good matchup, but playing time is a question mark for those three, especially Mixon, who hasn’t looked the same since getting hurt in Week 15. Also, this could be a game for the Texans to start getting Diontae Johnson up to speed in the offense — if he gets going, then this squad could be a little more dangerous in the playoffs.
Maybe something to play for
Chargers
Playoff scenario: L.A.’s matchup against the Raiders on Sunday will be meaningless if the Steelers win on Saturday. Otherwise, they could play for the No. 5 seed since they’d probably much rather play at Houston than at Baltimore or Pittsburgh (they lost to the Ravens and Steelers already this year).
History: Jim Harbaugh never had the chance to rest starters in his season finales with the 49ers, so there’s no evidence of him benching starters in meaningless games.
This week: In typical Harbaugh fashion, he refused to get into hypotheticals, but he did hint he would rest players “if we were locked into a seed.” By Sunday, they could be locked into the No. 6 seed. If not, “We’d love to be in the fifth seed. That gives you a chance to have a playoff game at home.”
Be ready to start: potentially, no one if the Steelers win. But if the Steelers lose, all the pertinent Chargers would be good options as they chase the No. 5 seed.
Rams
Playoff scenario: The Rams have won the NFC West but would get the No. 3 seed if they beat the Seahawks. That would lock up a matchup against either the Commanders or the Packers, avoiding either the Lions or the Vikings in the first round. That’s substantial. They would also earn the No. 3 seed if the Buccaneers lose before their game on Sunday, though that’s unlikely against the Saints. If the Bucs win and the Rams lose, they’d be the No. 4 seed and have that date with either the Lions or Vikings.
History: When faced with nothing to gain, Sean McVay has rested starters three separate times. This figures to be the course of action if the Bucs lose to the Saints, but it’s unlikely.
This week: It’s assumed the Rams will rest their starters rather than risk injury. At least, that’s what the oddsmakers think will happen, as Seattle is nearly a touchdown favorite against the Rams as of Tuesday. It’s something we’ll need to literally keep tabs on leading up to their game on Sunday, unfortunately.
Be ready to start: If the Bucs win and/or if the Rams don’t make any of their regular starters inactive, then Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are musts. I’d hesitate on the declining Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford probably doesn’t register as highly as he did a few weeks ago. But if the Rams do opt to rest their players, as the oddsmakers suggest, then no one is really worth a look except maybe Blake Corum since he’d potentially get a big workload. Maybe.
Something to play for
Steelers
Playoff scenario: With a Ravens loss and a win, the Steelers would be AFC North champs and the No. 3 seed in the AFC. The Ravens play the Browns early on Saturday, so that seems unlikely. But the Steelers would clinch the No. 5 seed and a matchup at Houston if they beat Cincinnati. If the Steelers lose to the Bengals and the Chargers win over the Raiders, then the Steelers would be the No. 6 seed and play Baltimore next week. They probably would prefer to play the Texans.
History: Mike Tomlin has almost never rested his players, even when they had nothing to play for.
This week: Tomlin said Monday, “We’ve got to get the stench of the last few performances off of us, and there’s no better way to do that than a home divisional win versus a formidable group going into the tournament.” So his starters are going to play, and probably a lot.
Be ready to start: George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris in a favorable matchup. Russell Wilson deserves a nod, too, as might Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers DST has sagged lately and will have its hands full this time against the red-hot Bengals.
Commanders
Playoff scenario: Washington can clinch the No. 6 seed with a win. They would be the No. 7 seed if they lost and the Packers beat the Bears. Whoever is the No. 7 seed will play at Philadelphia.
History: Dan Quinn never had the chance to rest starters in his season finales with the Falcons, so there’s no evidence of him benching starters in meaningless games.
This week: Quinn told the media the Commanders are “going to fight like hell” to keep the No. 6 seed.
Be ready to start: All your typical Commanders starters.
Packers
Playoff scenario: Green Bay can clinch the No. 6 seed with a win and a Commanders loss. Otherwise, they’ll be the No. 7 seed and have a date with the Eagles in Philly.
History: On the one occasion the Packers had nothing to play for in a finale, Matt LaFleur sent Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and other Packers starters for a half. Part of it was for Adams to clinch franchise records for the most catches and yards in a season, part of it was for left tackle David Bakhtiari to get some playing time. Jordan Love took over in the second half.
This week: Coach Matt LaFleur was adamant both after the loss to Minnesota, and the day after that the Packers need to clean up a lot of things. That suggests he’ll play his starters until he’s satisfied — however long that is.
Be ready to start: All your typical Packers starters, but maybe be a little concerned about them getting pulled in the fourth quarter.
