The 2025 Kentucky Derby weather forecast could create some drama leading up to the 6:57 p.m. ET post time on Saturday. Churchill Downs has seen rain throughout the afternoon and potentially into the evening. Regardless of whether rain is actively coming down at post time, the Kentucky Derby track conditions will be sloppy. Journalism is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but all five of his races have come on fast dirt tracks.
Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) are next on the horse racing odds board, but they might not be the best choices in the conditions. Are there some longshot horses who are experienced in the sloppy conditions that you should back with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? The team at SportsLine has taken a deep dive into the history of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to see which ones are bred to thrive in sloppy conditions.
You can use their advice to make picks on Kentucky Derby betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. You can also evaluate the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds to get the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
Here are four Kentucky Derby horses to target, giving the sloppy Churchill Downs track conditions:
American Promise (30-1)
American Promise hit the board twice but did not win in the first five races of his career, with his best finish being a runner-up in a maiden special weight. He finally broke his maiden on a muddy track in December, beating fellow Derby entrant Publisher at Oaklawn Park. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify also finished eighth on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last September.
He heads into the Derby following one of his best performances, winning the 2025 Virginia Derby over Render Judgement and Omaha Omaha. American Promise is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who is a four-time Kentucky Derby winner, seven-time Preakness Stakes winner and four-time Belmont Stakes winner. You can bet American Promise at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:
Publisher (20-1)
Publisher is a unique entry in the field, as he is set to be the 13th maiden to run in the Derby since 1937. The son of 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah has hit the board in five of his seven starts, and two of those came in wet conditions. The first one came in a maiden special weight on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last September, giving him a perspective that not many other horses in the field have.
He added a second-place finish on a muddy track at Oaklawn in December to cap off his maiden special weight career. Publisher improved in each of his graded stakes races, finishing sixth in the Southwest Stakes (G3), fourth in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). You can bet on Publisher at 1/ST BET and get up to $250 in bonus funds:
Neoequos (30-1)
Neoequos made his racing debut on a sloppy track last July, but he lost his rider after getting bumped at the start. He performed much better on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in January, winning by 3.5 lengths in a gate-to-wire victory. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. told reporters that Neoequos “has been training well” at Churchill Downs since arriving last Saturday.
He will be ridden by jockey Luis Saez after Baeza drew into the race and will be ridden by Flavien Prat, who was previously going to ride Neoequos. The distance is going to be a new challenge for Neoequos, but his connections will not be disappointed by wet conditions. You can bet Neoequos now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
Coal Battle (30-1)
Coal Battle made his racing debut on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs last July, when he easily cleared the field to break his maiden. He got more experience on a muddy track in November, winning the Jean Lafitte (LS) at Delta Downs. That win marked the beginning of a four-race winning streak that concluded with a Rebel Stakes (G2) victory in February.
He had his winning streak snapped when he finished third in the 2025 Arkansas Derby (G1), but that came against an elite field on a fast track. Coal Battle could have a prime opportunity to avenge that defeat against fellow Derby entrants Sandman and Publisher on Saturday night.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
SportsLine’s Jody Demling has nailed the Derby-Oaks double 11 times, and he is high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
Best Kentucky Derby betting promos
Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.