CHICAGO — The NBA Draft landscape changed drastically in the span of a mere few days this week with the Dallas Mavericks winning the No. 1 pick in stunning fashion and numerous prospects putting together big weeks to rise and reshape what this year’s first round may look like with six weeks to the draft.
The buzz coming out of Chicago centered not just around what the Mavs lucked into at No. 1, winning the lottery with a 1.8% chance, but also what the Spurs’ options are after rising up to No. 2 — and what the cascading effect of a surprising lottery outcome may mean for possibly-available stars like Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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Answers to those questions may come after we drill down into the heart of draft season and begin to nail down some deeper questions about a class that many teams are very excited about. So below, as you can see after spending several days in Chicago this week, I’ve grabbed my equipment and begun the drilling process to help reveal a little more about what we learned from this year’s combine and what it may mean for the draft in June.
Let’s dive in with some winners and losers.
Winner: Duke transfer Cedric Coward soaring
The talk of the NBA Draft Combine early in the week centered around Washington State star Cedric Coward, who committed to Duke out of the transfer portal. He was one of a handful of names I highlighted precombine who was generating buzz and had a chance to make a meaningful splash into first-round territory, and many in Chicago came away convinced he did precisely that. In addition to measuring 6-feet-6.5 with a 7-2 wingspan, he shot the ball well and looked the part of a rangy wing with tools to be in the NBA — not the ACC — next season.
We’ll see.
An educated guess would lead me to believe he will not play at Duke next season and instead rides this week into top-20 draft territory.
Losers: Duke, Michigan may have holes to fill
One lesson big-name schools with big-name transfers testing the NBA Draft waters — Duke and Michigan specifically — probably learned after this week: Lock them down before the combine or begin looking elsewhere.
Duke is probably going to have to pivot in the likely event Coward remains in the draft (and it appears they are in the process of doing so, with Dame Sarr trending their way.) Michigan is probably going to have to do the same after UAB star Yaxel Lendeborg also had a big week to catapult into the top-25 range of the first round (more on him in a bit).
A lot of schools may see what Texas Tech did earlier this spring with JT Toppin — offering him such a big NIL bag that he agrees not to even go through the draft process — as the blueprint for how to handle things and reduce roster uncertainty in the future. No team wants to be scrambling in mid-May with late surprises but Duke and Michigan are probably going to be doing exactly that.
Winners: Drake Powell, Tahaad Pettiford impress scouts
Big stay-or-go names like Powell, a North Carolina wing and Auburn’s Pettiford both had strong showings at the combine and did enough to reasonably stay in the draft with a high likelihood of landing guaranteed deals.
Powell’s impressive week started by measuring 6-5.25 with a 7-0 wingspan and 8-7 standing reach and ended with a 43-inch max vertical leap and 37-.5 inch no-step vertical — the latter two of which were both tops among participants.
Pettiford’s week was also helped by his athletic testing numbers after flashing a 42-inch max vertical. On the floor he also helped himself with a 23-point game in one of the two scrimmages he competed in, getting virtually anywhere he wanted on the floor.
Both will be big risers from the week and their respective decisions to stay or go may be a lot easier. Powell has already said he’s committed to staying in the draft now after the week and it’d be unsurprising if Pettiford soon announced the same.
Loser: Bad look for lottery system
The new lottery system implemented in 2019 that flattened the lottery odds — previously the three teams with the worst records had a 25%, 19.9% and 13.8% chance, respectively, before the new system gave an even 14% chance to the three worst teams — spit out yet another less-than-ideal outcome. The Mavs won the lottery with a 1.8% chance, and the team with the worst regular-season record fell to the No. 5 pick — the third consecutive lottery that has happened.
The team with the worst record has not picked No. 1 since the flattened lottery system was implemented and toiling teams like the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are left again frustrated by failing to secure a franchise-altering No. 1 pick.
Losers: Ace Bailey, Jase Richardson come up short
Both Bailey and Richardson were among the biggest losers at the combine after coming up short, literally, during the measurements portion of the event. Bailey came in at 6-7.5 without shoes after previously being listed at 6-feet-10, while Richardson measured 6-0.5 and 178.4 pounds after previously being listed at 6-3 and 185 pounds.
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How much that affects their stocks, if at all, still remains to be seen. But coming out of combine week the buzz I consistently heard was that Bailey is very much still in play at No. 3 for Philadelphia, though that is far from a guarantee, while Richardson’s stock is settling in the 15-25 range for the time being.
Winner: Egor Demin quiets doubters with big week
BYU star Egor Demin showed off his shooting stroke — arguably the biggest question mark of his otherwise-elite profile — in a number of different shooting drills and had a particularly strong showing at his pro day on Thursday to alleviate some concerns about his projectable jumper. He also measured in 6-8.25 without shoes, a touch bigger than expected. Demin is the best passer in this year’s class and an exciting prospect who appears to be on the rise once again back firmly into lottery territory.
Winner: Lendeborg rising up draft boards
Measuring 6-8.5 with a shocking 7-4 wingspan and 9-0.5 standing reach helped Lendeborg, the UAB star who is committed to transfer to Michigan, stretch his way into a range in the draft that may be too tough for him to pass on. He spoke at the combine this week and said he is legitimately torn on his decision to stay in the draft or go back to school and remains one of the biggest names with an unknown. The sentiment entering the week was that returning to school was all but a guarantee but now, Wolverines fans have to hold their breath and hope.
He did well for himself in addition to the measurements and looked the part of a first-rounder in scrimmages operating as a small-ball big. In Wednesday’s scrimmage he had 13 points, nine boards, two assists, one block and one steal, matching up nicely against the length of Team Lazare. He was quieter on Thursday with four points, three boards and two steals. Overall it was a big week for him — but was it big enough for him to fully commit to the draft?
I’d handicap it 60/40 he stays in the draft after having those numbers flipped early in the week. I’m not entirely sure he even knows which direction he’ll go yet.
Loser: RJ Luis fails to flash
After a career year at St. John’s leading the Red Storm under Rick Pitino, Luis Jr. has failed to generate a ton of interest in the transfer portal and failed to flash in a big way at this week’s Combine, too. He went a combined 11 of 29 shooting in the two scrimmages he played in and was a -41 in the two games. Luis Jr. is the No. 4 overall player in 247Sports’ transfer portal rankings and would do well for himself to run it back in college one more season.
Winners: Big men with big game
Penn State center Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Stanford center Maxime Raynaud and Qingdao center Hansen Yang — all of whom measure right around 7 feet tall — had big weeks at the combine. Niederhauser’s big week began with a G League Elite Camp showing and a combine call-up and finished with flash in the scrimmages and incredible athletic testing, replete with a 37-inch max vert.
Raynaud had 20 points and nine boards in the scrimmage Wednesday and played so well he pulled out of Thursday’s competition, leading some to believe he may have a promise somewhere in the first round.
Yang had 12 points and a pair of assists Wednesday then had 11-6-6 on Thursday. The trio of bigs had gigantic weeks and are set to be among the bigger risers of the week.