Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 17 content:
Kansas City’s offense has a lot of solid players who are deserving of playing time, but it’s been Xavier Worthy who has produced the most Fantasy points (16.6 PPR per game) and landed the most touches among non-RBs (8.3 per game) over the past three weeks. Notably, Worthy’s average depth of throw (ADOT) has dropped under nine yards in each of his past three games, making him an easier target closer to the line of scrimmage. That’s lowered his explosive catches, but he’s still a solid yards after catch threat with more red-zone and end-zone targets than (gulp) Travis Kelce. He’ll take on the same Steelers defense that struggled to keep up with shifty receiver Zay Flowers last Saturday and DeVonta Smith in Week 15. You should be encouraged by Worthy’s season-long target per route run rate of 24.2% against man-to-man coverage, which the Steelers defense has leaned on in seven games since their bye week. I wouldn’t be shy about leaning on Worthy as a flex play this week in any format.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Travis Kelce
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes (low-end starter), George Pickens (No. 2 WR), Chiefs DST
FLEX: Xavier Worthy, Jaylen Warren (PPR), Najee Harris
SITS: Russell Wilson, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Pat Freiermuth, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, Calvin Austin, Steelers DST
Losing veteran guard Shaq Mason is another significant issue for a Texans O-line that has been a weakness for the team all season. It’s even impacted how C.J. Stroud operates — last year he was defiant against pass rushes, this year he’s a little more tentative and it shows in his 47% completion rate and 74.9 QB rating when he’s pressured. Mason’s absence will also be felt in the run game, which has been a mess for the Texans ever since Joe Mixon hurt his ankle. This is just in time for a nightmarish matchup against the Ravens, who boast a 3.5 rushing average against and 5.7% rate of allowing 10-plus rush yard plays on the season. They also have a ferocious pass rush that’s landed 19 sacks on a 37.9% pass rush pressure rate in its past six games. Tack on Tank Dell’s season-ending injury, and it’s hard to be really excited for any Texans players outside of Nico Collins.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins
STARTS: Joe Mixon (No. 2 RB), Mark Andrews, Ravens DST, Dalton Schultz (low-end starter)
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman
SITS: C.J. Stroud, John Metchie, Isaiah Likely, Robert Woods, Dare Ogunbowale, newest Texan Diontae Johnson, Texans DST
Obviously Caleb Williams’ Week 16 stats were phenomenal (334-2-0 with 34 rush yards), but the film showed a quarterback developing in the right direction, albeit still streaky and still slow to get the chains moving. Williams struggled through much of the first half but got things cooking late in the second with perfect back-to-back deep passes to D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen that covered 70 yards with a touchdown. He then flamed the Lions in the third quarter for another touchdown with some great throws under pressure to Allen and Rome Odunze. Yes, he did struggle in the fourth quarter but a lot of it could be chalked up to poor play design and not individual issues like accuracy or decision-making. Williams can and will develop into a good passer once given a better play designer and an upgraded offensive line. Keenan Allen has to stay in Chicago, too — that man can still play. Seattle’s pass rush hasn’t been anything special over their past four games including a zero-sack game versus Green Bay where they blitzed 35.7% of their plays and even had a near-50% pass rush pressure rate. Chicago’s passing game should thrive in Week 17.
STARTS: Caleb Williams, Geno Smith (borderline starter), Zach Charbonnet (as long as Ken Walker is out), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (top-15 WR), Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift
FLEX: D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf
SITS: Rome Odunze, Tyler Lockett, Cole Kmet, A.J. Barner, Seahawks DST, Bears DST
STARTS: Ladd McConkey (No. 2 WR), Hunter Henry (low-end TE), Chargers DST (low-end starter)
FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson
SITS: Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Gus Edwards (desperation RB), Quentin Johnston (desperation WR), Stone Smartt, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper, Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Antonio Gibson, Kimani Vidal, Patriots DST
A few weeks back, Sean Payton remarked how his run game was tailored to an opponent’s weakness and it played out as successful for the Broncos. Cincinnati’s run defense has been bludgeoned by opponents for five straight weeks, but it’s been the Steelers, Cowboys and Browns who found the most success running between the tackles; each averaged at least 5.2 yards per carry on those runs with a rate north of 10% on runs of 10-plus yards. All of Denver’s backs have a season-long average of at least four yards per carry on between-the-tackle runs, but in the past five weeks it’s been Jaleel McLaughlin dusting both Javonte Williams and Audric Estime on those plays with a 4.7 average to their sub-4.0s. If you had to start a Broncos running back, which is most definitely risky business, in non-PPR I would lean on McLaughlin with the hope he’d see the most opportunities to attack the Bengals’ biggest weakness in the run game. In full PPR I’d chance it with Williams since he seems to have a lock on third-down work.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
STARTS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (No. 1 WR)
SITS: Jaleel McLaughlin (desperation non-PPR RB), Javonte Williams (desperation PPR RB), Audric Estime, Adam Trautman, Andrei Iosivas, Devaughn Vele, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST (borderline DST), Broncos DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (No. 2 WR), Trey McBride
STARTS: Rams DST
SITS: Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Carter, Demarcus Robinson, Michael Wilson, Tyler Higbee, Cardinals DST
There were literally plays last week where Garrett Wilson had blown past his coverage and put his arm up to call for the football and Aaron Rodgers went in another direction. The talent is definitely there, but he’s running too many routes downfield while his quarterback typically opts for shorter, closer targets, usually to Davante Adams. Since Adams’ arrival, Wilson has averaged 2.22 targets per game fewer than Adams with essentially half as many red-zone and end-zone targets. I don’t think Wilson talking about his diminished role with the media will help him out here — Rodgers has a clear affinity for throwing to Adams, which, candidly, has worked out. Wilson hasn’t out-touched Adams since Week 9 and has one game in his past six with over 15 PPR points. The glimmer of hope is that the Bills force the Jets into a pass-heavy game script that allows Adams and Wilson to see a lot of targets. Four of the past six teams to play Buffalo threw at least 33 passes, each of them tossing two touchdowns and three QBs getting over 250 yards. Six receivers have posted at least 15 PPR points against Buffalo in their past six games with three — Kayshon Boutte, Alec Pierce and Xavier Worthy — predominantly outside receivers like Wilson. Each of them caught a pass of at least 31 yards and each had a score, two things Wilson hasn’t done much of lately.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, Davante Adams
STARTS: James Cook, Breece Hall (No. 2 RB), Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR), Bills DST
FLEX: Khalil Shakir
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid (borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE), Tyler Conklin, Allen Lazard, Ty Johnson (desperation PPR RB), Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Braelon Allen, Mack Hollins, Jets DST
Chig Okonkwo is tops among tight ends in PPR points per game (16.5), total targets (21) and target share (30%) in his past two games. Some less appealing stats: He’s averaging just 8.2 yards per catch, his ADOT is 6.05 yards (all but five targets have been within five yards of the line of scrimmage), he has one explosive play, and he has zero red-zone or end-zone targets in those past two, mostly with Mason Rudolph. That’s somewhat concerning, as is the possibility that the Titans play with a lead this week instead of playing from behind which they’ve done for much of the year. That’s because of their matchup with the Jaguars, who are just as awful against the run (two Raiders RBs scored on them last week!) as they are the pass. Could Okonkwo do what Brenton Strange did last week and see his target volume disappear because of game scenario? It’s what makes me nervous to start him, but I’m nervous to start all but nine tight ends this week, so Okonkwo is in play as a low-end starter.
STARTS: Brian Thomas Jr., Tony Pollard, Chig Okonkwo
FLEX: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, Tyjae Spears (PPR)
SITS: Mason Rudolph, Mac Jones, Tank Bigsby, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Titans DST, Jaguars DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Addison
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Tucker Kraft
FLEX: Romeo Doubs (PPR)
SITS: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed (low-end flex), Dontayvion Wicks, T.J. Hockenson, Cam Akers, Vikings DST (low-end starter), Packers DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Brock Bowers
STARTS: Jakobi Meyers (low-end No. 2 WR), Alexander Mattison (low-end No. 2 RB), Ameer Abdullah (low-end No. 2 PPR RB)
SITS: Aidan O’Connell, Spencer Rattler, Kendre Miller, Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, Raiders DST (desperation DST), Saints DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Malik Nabers (No. 2 WR)
STARTS: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (No. 2 RB)
SITS: Drew Lock, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary, Dan Bellinger, Giants DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans, Chuba Hubbard
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving
FLEX: Adam Thielen (borderline No. 2 PPR WR), Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White
SITS: Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Payne Durham, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Buccaneers DST, Panthers DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (No. 2 WR)
STARTS: Jerome Ford (No. 2 RB), Jonnu Smith, David Njoku, Dolphins DST
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (borderline starter), Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerry Jeudy, Malik Washington, Elijah Moore, Raheem Mostert, D’Onta Foreman, Browns DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Rico Dowdle (low-end No. 2 RB), Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith
SITS: Kenny Pickett, Cooper Rush, Jake Ferguson (low-end PPR TE), Brandin Cooks (desperation flex), Jalen Tolbert, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST
Honestly, the Falcons should have gone to Michael Penix Jr. sooner. No doubt the arm strength he showed in college was absolutely there against the Giants, but his mobility gave many of his plays a chance to stay alive, and several did. I especially enjoyed the timing he shared with Darnell Mooney on a number of out-route throws, and he should have had a better game if not for some drops (looking at you, Kyle Pitts). Long-term, the Falcons are in good hands and shouldn’t be mocked for taking Penix with their first-round pick anymore. Short-term, Penix will face a Commanders defense that’s generated at least a 40% pass rush pressure rate in three straight games with nine sacks as a result. I don’t have it in my heart to start Penix but I’d be happy to go with his top pass-catchers, Mooney and Drake London, in what could end up being a decently high-scoring game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders DST
FLEX: Darnell Mooney
SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud, Tyler Allgeier, Jeremy McNichols, Falcons DST
Detroit’s defensive problems were masked by their offense’s awesome production and some inefficiencies in Chicago’s offense last week. Even though the Niners have nothing to play for, I am reasonably certain Kyle Shanahan will put Brock Purdy (who’s still chasing a huge contract) and the rest of the offense in position to take advantage of a depleted and weak defense. The Lions struggled in heavy zone coverage last week, at one point giving up 70 yards and a touchdown on two deep-ball throws. They also couldn’t wrap up Caleb Williams consistently, even on a seven-man blitz. Overall Williams was sacked twice despite a crazy-high 43.5% blitz rate from the Lions. In fact the Lions have blitzed heavily in each of their past three games and have three sacks to show for it. This should encourage Fantasy managers to trust Purdy and his pass catchers in what should be a high-scoring game, even if the Niners offensive line isn’t it usual stout self.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Kittle
STARTS: Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST
FLEX: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel
SITS: Patrick Taylor, Tim Patrick, Craig Reynolds, 49ers DST
