The Daytona 500 is the pillar of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule and the 2025 season will officially begin with “The Great American Race” on Sunday. William Byron won his first Daytona 500 last year, edging Alex Bowman by less than a second, but Joey Logano won the season-long title and will enter the 2025 Daytona 500 as a three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion. Logano will look for a second victory in the biggest race on the NASCAR schedule, having previously won NASCAR’s premier event in 2015. The latest 2025 Daytona 500 forecast is calling for a 25% chance of rain and strong winds out of the southwest at 22 mph. Chase Briscoe will be on the pole, but is a +2500 longshot.
The green flag is scheduled to drop at 2:30 p.m. ET and the 2025 Daytona 500 starting grid will run 200 laps. Kyle Larson is the +1200 favorite in the latest 2025 Daytona 500 odds, followed by Joey Logano (+1300), Kyle Busch (+1300), and Ryan Blaney (+1300). Before entering any 2025 Daytona 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at last week’s Clash at Bowman Gray. In 2024, it nailed Kyle Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 19 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the Daytona 500 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Daytona leaderboard.
Top 2025 Daytona 500 predictions
For the 2025 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on William Byron, even though he’s a longshot at +1700 in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. In addition to winning the 2024 Daytona 500, Byron won at Daytona International Speedway in the 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 and was the runner-up in the 2019 Daytona Night Race.
Byron is now a 13-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and he’s finished third in the NASCAR standings each of the last two seasons while piling up nine wins, 28 top fives and 42 top-10 finishes. Now he’ll look to take another step towards winning a championship and he can start that pursuit by becoming just the fifth driver in NASCAR history to win back-to-back Daytona 500s.
And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, the top Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2025 Daytona 500 starting lineup. Keselowski finally ended a 110-race winless streak last season with a victory at Darlington but his pursuit of a second career title came well short after a string of bad results late in the season.
He was eliminated after the first round of the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs and finished outside the top 10 in nine of his last 11 starts. Keselowski also finished 33rd in the 2024 Daytona 500 and has never won The Great American Race, though he did win the 2016 Coke Zero 400. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with NASCAR odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Daytona 500 2025, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 19 winners, including Chase Elliott’s win (+300) at the 2025 Clash at Bowman Gray.
2025 NASCAR Daytona odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Daytona picks at SportsLine.
Brad Keselowski +1000
Ryan Blaney +1200
Kyle Busch +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Kyle Larson +1300
Denny Hamlin +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
William Byron +1600
Christopher Bell +1600
Todd Gilliland +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
Austin Cindric +2200
Chris Buescher +2600
Bubba Wallace +2600
Tyler Reddick +3000
Ross Chastain +3000
Alex Bowman +3500
Martin Truex Jr. +4000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Ty Gibbs +4500
Josh Berry +4500
Ryan Preece +4500
Noah Gragson +4500
Michael McDowell +4500
Justin Haley +5000
Justin Allgaier +6000
Daniel Suarez +6000
AJ Allmendinger +6500
Riley Herbst +7000
Cole Custer +7000
Carson Hocevar +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +7500
Jimmie Johnson +7500
Zane Smith +7500
Ty Dillon +8000
Corey Lajoie +9000
John Hunter Nemechek +10000
Cody Ware +20000
Helio Castroneves +25000
