Air Force vs. Utah State odds, line, time: 2023 college football picks, Week 3 predictions from proven model

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The Air Force Falcons will try to snap a brief slide against a Mountain West Conference foe when they host the Utah State Aggies on Friday night. Utah State (1-1) has won the past two meetings with Air Force, but the Falcons have a 5-4 edge in the MWC series history. Air Force has displayed the strong defense and run game that helped the Falcons win 10 games last season, including a 30-15 victory against Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl. They followed a 42-7 rout of Robert Morris in the opener with a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston. The Aggies went 6-7 last season, but five of those victories came in the final eight weeks, including a 34-27 home victory against Air Force to begin that run.

Friday’s kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network at Falcon Stadium at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colo. The Falcons are listed as a 9.5-point favorites in the latest Utah State vs. Air Force odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5. Before locking in any Air Force vs. Utah State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Utah State vs. Air Force and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Air Force vs. Utah State: 

  • Utah State vs. Air Force spread: Falcons -9.5
  • Utah State vs. Air Force over/under: 46.5 points
  • Utah State vs. Air Force money line: Aggies +286, Falcons -369
  • Utah State: Is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog the past two seasons.
  • Air Force: Is 9-6-1 ATS in conference games the past two years.
  • Utah State vs. Air Force picks: See picks at SportsLine 

Why Air Force can cover

Air Force was 7-6 against the spread last season, including 5-4 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 points or more. The Falcons won’t surprise anyone with their approach, which is to run the ball and play stingy defense. The Falcons are averaging 309 rushing yards through the first two games while the defense is allowing 118 yards per game. Air Force led the nation in total defense in 2002, giving up 256 yards per contest, and were tied for third in scoring (13.3 points per game).

John Lee Eldridge III is averaging 8.3 yards per carry, boosted by a 65-yard run, and fellow running back Owen Burk has 107 yards through two games. Quarterback Zac Larrier has rushed for 164, and he can catch teams that focus too much on the run. Larrier has only completed three of six passes, but one was an 84-yard touchdown to Jared Roznos against Robert Morris. The defense has six sacks, and linebacker PJ Ramsey and Bo Richter have posted two apiece. See which team to pick here.

Why Utah State can cover

Utah State’s 50-point victory, in which they put up 591 yards against Idaho State, should instill confidence. USU also outgained Iowa in the Week 1 loss, allowing less than 200 passing yards and just 88 on the ground. The Aggies have three players who average more than 8 yards per carry and have more than 100 rushing yards. Rashul Faison has a team-high 154 yards, but Robert Briggs led with 101 in last Saturday’s victory as Utah State piled up 380 rushing yards.

The Aggies averaged 8.6 yards per play last week, and quarterback Cooper Legas and Levi Williams are both capable of leading the offense. Each had two touchdown passes last week, and Legas has completed 72% of his throws, with three TDs and one interception. Receiver Terrell Vaughn had 11 catches for 73 yards and two TDs in Week 2. The Utah State defense gave up a lot of passing yards last week, but that won’t be much of a concern against AFA. See which team to pick here.

How to make Utah State vs. Air Force picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting that the teams combine for more than 50 points. The model also shows one side of the spread is hitting ore than 60% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Utah State vs. Air Force on Friday night, and which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out. 

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