Alabama vs. USF odds, spread, time, line: 2023 picks, Week 3 college football predictions from proven model

tyler buchner alabama crimson tide usatsi 1

Raymond James Stadium showcases an intriguing non-conference college football battle on Saturday afternoon. The South Florida Bulls host the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide for the second all-time meeting between the programs. Alabama won the first battle in 2003, and Nick Saban leads a perennial national title contender. The Crimson Tide are coming off a loss to Texas last week and enter with a 1-1 record, with USF also sitting at 1-1 after a victory over Florida A&M. Alabama will reportedly turn to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at quarterback after Jalen Milroe started the first two games of the season.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Crimson Tide as 34-point favorites for this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 61 in the latest Alabama vs. South Florida odds. Before making any USF vs. Alabama picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Alabama vs. USF and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for USF vs. Alabama:

  • Alabama vs. South Florida spread: Alabama -34
  • Alabama vs. South Florida over/under: 61 points
  • Alabama vs. South Florida money line: Alabama -10000, USF +3000
  • Alabama: The Crimson Tide are 7-7-1 against the spread since the start of 2022
  • USF: The Bulls are 5-9 against the spread since the start of 2022
  • Alabama vs. South Florida picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Alabama vs. South Florida live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Alabama can cover

Alabama is long-established as an upper-tier program in the college football world, and the Crimson Tide are facing a South Florida program that has wobbled in the recent past. The Bulls picked up a win last week against Florida A&M, but South Florida is on a 17-game losing streak against FBS opponents. USF is just 1-34 in the last 35 games against FBS schools, and the Bulls had arguably the worst defense in the country in 2022. The Bulls gave up more total yards (516.6 per game) than any FBS program last season, and USF allowed 41.2 points per game. 

Opponents completed 73% of passes, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt in 2022, and USF also yielded 6.1 yards per rush attempt. So far in 2023, the Bulls have given up 355.0 passing yards per game, including 8.6 yards per pass attempt, opening up a path for success as Buchner makes his first start. On the other side, Alabama consistently brings elite-tier talent to the table, and the Crimson Tide have an intriguing X-factor on special teams. Not only are the Crimson Tide athletic and deep up and down the roster, but Alabama is also leading FBS with 50.3 net yards per punt this season. See which team to pick here.

Why South Florida can cover

There are positive indicators for South Florida this season. The Bulls are playing this game at home, and USF is averaging 31.0 points per game so far in 2023. South Florida is generating 441.0 total yards per game, a top-three mark in the American Athletic Conference, and no team is averaging more rushing yards (241.0 per game) than South Florida. The Bulls are keyed by a tremendously talented quarterback in Byrum Brown, who leads the AAC with eight total touchdowns this season. 

Brown also leads the conference with four rushing touchdowns, and he is No. 2 in the AAC with 183 rushing yards in two games. Brown also produced seven total touchdowns and well over 500 yards in two starts during the 2022 season. The Bulls also have a friendlier matchup against Alabama’s defense than one might expect. The Crimson Tide allowed more than 450 total yards and 9.2 yards per pass attempt against Texas, and Alabama committed 10 penalties in that loss. USF head coach Alex Golesh was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator when the Vols beat Alabama last year, so USF backers will hope he has another strong game plan for this one. See which team to pick here.

How to make Alabama vs. USF picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 73 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can see the model’s picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins South Florida vs. Alabama, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out. 

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