When Purdue fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell following the team’s third straight loss of the season it wasn’t much of a surprise, given the Boilermakers’ struggles on offense. Purdue scored 49 points in its opener against Indiana State, but just 38 points against three FBS teams since.
Whether or not the decision changes anything for the Boilermakers this season, or if Harrell was truly the problem, could be debated for a while. The primary question I asked myself was, “I wonder who’s next?”
The Harrell news is a reminder that in-season coaching changes are happening earlier and earlier. One could argue that the decision to fire Harrell was a move that may have been throwing a bone to an angry Purdue fanbase that’s not pleased with the 5-11 mark under Ryan Walters, who himself is beginning to feel heat on his seat.
But Walters is hardly alone.
Looking around the Big Ten, plenty of coaches could find themselves in trouble should their fortunes not change. Let’s look at them, and we’ll start with Walters. To be clear, this is simply me looking at each situation and how things typically play out. After all, the overwhelming majority of coaches are hired to be fired. The Nick Sabans of the world are outliers.
Ryan Walters, Purdue
Year 2: 5-11, 3-7 in Big Ten
The Walters hire wasn’t overly popular with the Purdue fan base, which meant it was a bit more critical for the new regime to get off to a quick start, regardless of whether it was a reasonable expectation or not. It hasn’t happened. Purdue followed up an 8-5 season in 2022 with a 4-8 mark in Walters’ first season, and the team’s three conference wins came against Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana — three teams that went a combined 7-20 in the Big Ten. Of Purdue’s eight losses, only three were of the one-score variety (and one of those was Fresno State at home); the other five came by an average of 23 points.
This season’s three losses have come by an average of 31.3 points, the worst being a 66-7 drubbing from Notre Dame. Making matters worse is that two of the teams Purdue beat last season (Illinois and Indiana) are off to strong starts to 2024, and Indiana — the Boilermakers’ biggest rival — is doing it in the first year with a new coach.
Also, it can’t be ignored that the offense isn’t the only problem. Yes, it’s been dreadful, but the defense hasn’t been much better. Purdue ranks 104th nationally in points allowed per drive, 90th in success rate, and 125th in EPA per play. And that’s if you include the 49-0 win over Indiana State. Only looking at games against FBS competition, Purdue ranks 122nd, 107th and 130th in those same categories.
Walters currently has nothing on which to hang his hat because Purdue isn’t doing anything well.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, five of Purdue’s remaining eight games are against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25, and three of those are on the road. Saturday’s road trip to Wisconsin is one of the more winnable games remaining, but now Purdue has to play that game days after changing its offensive coordinator.
My gut tells me Walters will be back for 2025 unless the bottom truly falls out and the situation is deemed untenable. However, unless Purdue turns things around and begins winning more games, he could enter 2025 on the hottest seat in the conference.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Year 6: 31-30, 14-29 in Big Ten
For clarity, I’m not including Locksley’s six games as Terrapins’ interim coach in 2015 as part of his record at Maryland. Still, even without that 1-5 mark in 2015, Locksley’s overall numbers with the Terps are less than impressive. Yes, Maryland is 31-30 overall and has been to bowl games each of the last three seasons. Those are all good things.
At the same time, the Terps have yet to have a winning record in conference play under Locksley, and they never finished higher than fourth in the Big Ten East. The hope was that the removal of divisions and of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State from the schedule every season would see an uptick in conference wins.
That hasn’t happened yet. Maryland lost 42-28 at Indiana last week and is now 0-2 in the Big Ten. Its other loss was at home to a Michigan State team that was crushed by Ohio State in East Lansing. Ohio State and Michigan aren’t on the schedule this season, but Maryland is still 0-2 against the old East Division. That drops Locksley’s overall conference record to 14-29, meaning the Terps are winning fewer than a third of their Big Ten games, and I don’t know how much of an improvement we’ll see over the rest of the season.
Northwestern at home after this week’s bye is winnable, but how confident are you that the Terps can beat USC, Rutgers or Iowa at home? How about road games against Minnesota, Oregon and Penn State? If Maryland wins two of those games, it will finish the year 5-7, and Locksley’s conference record will be 16-34.
On one hand, you can point out that Locksley may have wrung out as much as is realistically possible for this program in the Big Ten. On the other hand, fan bases tend to get bored quickly when they don’t see considerable improvement over time, and Maryland may feel like it needs a reset.
I wouldn’t call it likely, but I sense there’s a pretty good chance this job opens if things don’t turn around.
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota
Year 8: 52-37, 29-34 in Big Ten
This is another case where I’m beginning to wonder if the marriage has run its course. Fleck has had plenty of success at Minnesota. He led the Gophers to an 11-2 record in 2019 and followed it up with nine-win seasons in 2021 and 2022. If we don’t include the COVID season — and honestly, there are few cases where we should — Minnesota has been to five straight bowl games and won them all.
But the Gophers are also 8-10 since the start of 2023 and 3-8 in the Big Ten. Right now, Minnesota fans would tell you they could be 4-7 if the officials in Ann Arbor last weekend weren’t blind. They might have a case, but I don’t know that it ultimately matters. When you break the Big Ten down into tiers, most of the teams you’d put alongside the Gophers are trending up. The Gophers are going the opposite direction.
Fleck has cycled through offensive coordinators in recent seasons, but none have had a noticeable impact. There was a change at quarterback over the offseason, too, with Max Brosmer replacing Athan Kaliakmanis. Brosmer is currently ranked 12th in passer efficiency in the Big Ten, while Kaliakmanis is ninth on a Rutgers team off to a 4-0 start.
Following last week’s loss, the Gophers offense ranks 12th in the Big Ten in points per possession, 11th in success rate and 15th in explosive play rate. At some point, you have to ask the question if it’s the offensive coordinator that’s the problem or the overall philosophy.
If there’s good news, it’s that plenty of winnable games remain on the schedule. The bad news is most of those winnable games are on the road, so they’re a little less winnable than you’d like! All of which has me wondering if both sides might not consider looking elsewhere this winter.
However things break down, there’s no debating Fleck has been the most successful Minnesota coach of the modern era. His .584 winning percentage ranks fourth all-time among Minnesota coaches who’ve coached at least 40 games, but none of the three coaches ahead of him coached the Gophers in the last 75 seasons.
Phil Longo, Wisconsin offensive coordinator
The firing of one offensive coordinator inspired this inspection, so it’s only fitting we include another coordinator in it. Little has gone as hoped after Wisconsin made the splashy hire of Luke Fickell. After going 7-6 last season, the Badgers are currently 2-2 and weren’t nearly as competitive with USC as the 38-21 final score might lead you to believe.
Still, even with another mediocre season, it’s hard to believe Fickell will be going anywhere, but somebody may have to fall on their sword. Longo seems the likely candidate.
Similar to the Harrell situation, it’s hard to blame Longo exclusively for Wisconsin’s offensive problems. Obviously, the Tyler Van Dyke injury matters, but the Badgers offense wasn’t performing well with him, either. It’s been more about the Jimmys and Joes than the Xs and Os, but coaches are responsible for their rosters, so Longo must shoulder some of the blame there.
Wherever you want to point the finger, there’s no escaping the fact Wisconsin ranks 13th in the Big Ten in points per possession, 14th in EPA per play, and dead last in explosive play rate. You can argue that the loss to Alabama skews those numbers overall, but the unit also struggled against Western Michigan, South Dakota and USC.
Wisconsin’s next three games are against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, and my gut tells me they’ll be critical games not only for Wisconsin’s season, but also for Longo’s tenure. If there isn’t improvement, I wouldn’t be surprised at a shakeup of the offensive staff in Madison this offseason.
Coach of the Week
I love Indiana coach Curt Cignetti with all my heart. I only wish that I were 20 years younger and far more athletic so I could play for him. The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the first time since 1957 after beating Maryland. They’re also No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and ranked for the first time since 2021. However, it should be pointed out the Hoosiers were only ranked in the preseason AP poll in 2021 due to their 6-2 record in 2020 (there’s that COVID year again!) and immediately fell out upon losing their opener to Iowa by 28 points.
Stats of the Week
On its opening drive against Minnesota, the Michigan offense went 79 yards on nine plays, finishing it off with a 27-yard touchdown run from Kalel Mullings. On Michigan’s next 10 possessions, which were unscripted, the Wolverines managed 164 yards over 51 plays. Their final two touchdown drives covered 16 yards and 11 yards, respectively.
Eight of Michigan’s 11 possessions finished with fewer than 20 yards.
In the end, the Wolverines won, and that’s what matters, but if you’re wondering why a team ranked No. 10 in the AP poll is a 3-point underdog on the road against a Washington team that just lost to Rutgers, start there.
Three hot takes
Blazing — Forget Nine-Windiana, the Hoosiers are winning 10 games: Am I drunk on the Hoosier Kool-Aid? Maybe, but I like it. The Hoosiers are 5-0, and there’s a strong argument to be made that “they ain’t played nobody,” but have you seen the schedule? There aren’t many “somebodys” on it.
The way I see it, the only game in which I don’t give this team a real shot at winning is the road trip to Ohio State. They can beat everybody else on the schedule, including Michigan, unless that Michigan offense takes a significant step forward.
Will leave a scar if touched — Michigan State will not make a bowl: Not something you’d expect after starting 3-0 with a road win against Maryland, but the last two weeks have shaken my faith in the Spartans. Getting blown out by Ohio State isn’t something I’ll hold against you, but that loss against Boston College was concerning.
They still have road games against Oregon, Michigan and Illinois, all of whom are ranked and will be difficult to defeat. Assuming they lose those, they’d need to win three of four at home against Iowa, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers.
This feels warm — Penn State and Oregon are the only Big Ten teams who can dream of competing with Ohio State: I’m really out on a limb with this one! Ohio State beat Michigan State by 31 in East Lansing, and it didn’t look like the Buckeyes played their A-game. As much as I love Indiana, the Hoosiers do not have the talent level to beat this team, and Michigan is a top-10 team in name only. They haven’t played anything like it.
Meanwhile, Oregon seems to have gotten its act together and Penn State’s 21-7 win over Illinois Saturday night was more dominant than the score suggests.
Coolest Thing of the Week
Speaking of Penn State, would you look at what Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton does on this play vs. Illinois? If that doesn’t get you right in the core of your football-loving lizard brain, what will?
Angriest Run of the Week
I’m telling you, between that play from Singleton, this run from Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai, and some of the blitz pickups I saw from Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, I’m confident in saying the Big Ten’s running backs can beat up your running backs.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State: If you read B1G Time last week, you know I’m high on Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson and what he’s done for the Hawkeyes so far this season. However, Johnson is not enough to beat Ohio State. I’ve also mentioned in this column in recent weeks that Iowa’s secondary has allowed more big plays than we’ve seen from them in recent years. That’s not good news when you’re about to face Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith! The last time these two met, Ohio State won 54-10. I don’t know if it’ll be nearly as lopsided this time, but it could be. Ohio State -20.5
Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon — Oregon -24
UCLA at No. 7 Penn State — UCLA +28.5
Purdue at Wisconsin — Purdue +12
No. 23 Indiana at Northwestern — Northwestern +14
Rutgers at Nebraska — Nebraska -7
No. 10 Michigan at Washington — Washington -3
No. 11 USC at Minnesota — USC -9
Last Week: 5-3
2024 Season: 36-22
