It’s safe to say that BYU was the big winner among the bubble teams in action Tuesday. The Cougars handed Kansas a 34-point loss, the worst loss ever for a team that was the preseason No. 1 team in the AP poll. Did you remember that the Jayhawks were the preseason No. 1? It’s been a while since they were near the top of the rankings.
Obviously, that is a nice boost for BYU’s tournament hopes. The Cougars, who were one of the “last four in” before beating the Jayhawks, are not off the bubble yet though. There are too many pitfalls left on the Cougars schedule.
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UConn, a No. 9 seed in the latest bracket projection, avoided another damaging loss to their résumé. After trailing for almost all of the game, the Huskies got by Villanova 66-59. That is an important win because it keeps a loss at St. John’s on Sunday, should it happen, from making it a three-game skid.
Oklahoma, a No. 10 seed, lost at No.1 seed Florida for its fifth straight loss and things are not going to get any easier. The Sooners’ next four games are against teams in the top 25 of the bracket before the regular-season finale at Texas, another team on the bubble..
Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub
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Wednesday’s ‘double-bubble’ game
Cincinnati at West Virginia
7 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)
This is a “double-bubble” game and it is desperation time for the Mountaineers.
The Bearcats’ best win came at home to BYU a couple of weeks ago and it is their only win against a team competing for a spot in the field. There will be more chances ahead, but they need all the wins they can get.
The Mountaineers have lost six of their last eight and have fallen to the last four teams in the current bracket. They have some good wins, but they are a .500 team against the top three quadrants.
Other bubble teams in action Wednesday
VCU
vs. Massachusetts, 6 p.m. | CBS Sports Network (Channel finder)
The Rams need to win all their games and hope for the best. There are no losses left on their schedule that keeps them in the hunt for an at-large bid.
Nebraska
at Penn State, 6:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fubo (Try for free)
The Cornhuskers have gotten hot at a good time. They have won four out of their last five and have a relatively favorable schedule to finish Big Ten play. They will get three of their last four at home after this, including a game against Michigan next that could really boost their chances.
Vanderbilt
at Kentucky, 7 p.m. | SEC Network, fubo (Try for free)
Vanderbilt, like the other SEC bubble teams, is struggling to stay afloat while battling a tough schedule. The Commodores have lost four out of five and their next three games are against other top teams in the conference. At least two of those games will be at home, where Vandy has picked up their best wins.
North Carolina
vs. NC State, 7 p.m. | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)
North Carolina needs to win the rest of their games. The only game they have left that helps them is the season finale with Duke. Every other game is a “must win” also because a loss would damage a résumé that cannot take any more damage.
SMU
at Notre Dame, 7 p.m. | ACC Network, fubo (Try for free)
SMU needs some quality wins and that cannot happen vs. the Irish. The Mustangs blew a good chance at home to Wake Forest last time out. They will get Clemson next, but a loss here might make that irrelevant.
Gonzaga
at Washington State, 9 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)
Gonzaga is one of the teams with the biggest gap between how the predictive metrics rank them vs. the ones that measure strength of résumé. The Bulldogs are a top 15 team in predictive metrics and in the mid-40s in the résumé ones. Their résumé looks pretty much like their résumé metrics say it does. A loss to the Cougars would knock them down another notch.
Arkansas
at Auburn, 9 p.m. | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)
Obviously, a win here would be huge for the Razorbacks, but they do not have to have it to make the NCAA Tournament. They actually have one of the more favorable schedules left after this among the SEC bubble teams because they have three of five at home and one of the road games is South Carolina.
Boise State
vs. New Mexico, 10 p.m. | CBS Sports Network,CBS Sports Network (Channel finder)
The Broncos have a couple of nice wins over St. Mary’s and Clemson, but a poor record against better teams and a Quad 4 loss to Boston College. They have this game and Utah State at home as their last chances to get good wins in the league before the Mountain West Tournament. If they cannot take advantage of those, they will probably just have to win that tournament.
Teams near the cut line
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 16 | At-large bids in play: 41 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31
| ACC | Duke |
| Big 12 | Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech |
| Big Ten | Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin |
| SEC | Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
