Neither the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) nor the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) can clinch a playoff spot with a victory on Thursday Night Football when they kick off NFL Week 15 in Santa Clara, and neither can be eliminated with a loss. It’s a massive game, not just for the NFC West race but also for potentially the conference’s final wild-card spot. The Niners look to avoid the rare sweep in the season series and are 3-point favorites with a total of 49.5.
Seattle (8-5) leads the NFC West, with the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) in second and Arizona and San Francisco tied for last. The 49ers split with the Seahawks, are 0-1 vs. Arizona and visit the Cardinals in Week 18. The Rams have the early tiebreaker on the Niners thanks to an unlikely Week 3 victory and are 1-0 vs. the Seahawks and 0-1 vs. the Cardinals, with games still to play against the latter two.
The Rams are a game out of the final wild-card spot held by Washington (8-5) and are +160 to win the division, +150 to make the playoffs and -185 to not. Per the SportsLine Projection Model, Sean McVay’s team has a 26% chance to win the division (+285) and a 27% chance to make the playoffs (+270). With a win Thursday, the Rams’ division title chances would improve to 40% (+150) and their playoff chances would rise to 41% (+144). With a loss, those numbers drop to 16% (+525) and 17% (+488).
San Francisco was the preseason favorite to repeat in the division and in the conference but is already guaranteed to finish below its preseason win total of 11.5. Injuries have shredded Kyle Shanahan’s club. Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey was limited to four games this season and Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Aiyuk played only seven. Both are now out for the year.
The 49ers are +1800 to win the division, +1000 to make the playoffs -2000 to go home early. Per the model, they have just a 2.4% chance to win the division (+4067) and a 6.6% shot to make the playoffs (+1415). With a victory here, those numbers would improve to 4% (+2400) and 7% (+1329), With a loss, the 49ers have just a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs.
Things might not get that much better next year, either. San Francisco will likely give quarterback Brock Purdy a mammoth extension this offseason, which will require cutting some other high-priced talent. Part of the reason the Niners were in such a great spot over the past couple of years was that Purdy was making less than $1 million per season.
We’ll take you through every aspect of the Rams-49ers game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including sportsbook promos and the best odds, along with SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.
Get updated lines and picks on SportsLine’s game forecast page for this matchup.
Betting on TNF: Rams vs. 49ers
The series stands at 78-70-3 in favor of the 49ers including two playoff meetings, and they lead 9-3 since 2019 but have lost the past two. The first you can throw out, as it came in Week 18 last year when the Niners rested their starters ahead of the playoffs. In Week 3 this year, the Rams were 6.5-point home dogs and won 27-24 (the team’s only win in its first five games) on a 37-yard field goal from Joshua Karty with two seconds left. San Francisco led 21-7 in the third quarter and 24-14 with just over six minutes left.
The 49ers had been 50-0 entering that one under Kyle Shanahan when leading by at least 14 points in the second half of any game. The Rams had 101 straight losses when trailing by at least 14 in the second half. Neither Cooper Kupp nor Puka Nacua was available for Los Angeles. Kyren Williams had three touchdowns. The Rams haven’t swept the series since 2018 and are 3-7 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. The Over is 4-1 in the past five.
Best betting odds and lines for Rams vs. 49ers on TNF
Expert picks for Rams vs. 49ers on TNF
The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting the final score to be right around the consensus over/under of 48.5, but subscribers can see which side of the Rams-49ers spread is the best value according to the model at SportsLine or on the CBS Sports app. Expert Micah Roberts is on a 26-6 run on picks in 49ers games, and while he’s leaning on the Under in this game, he also shared his Rams-49ers spread pick over at SportsLine.
Key SportsLine experts have also weighed in on several props for the game. Larry Hartstein, who is 90-63 (+1409) on his last 153 NFL player prop picks, has locked in best bets involving Deebo Samuel and one of Los Angeles’ key defenders. Early Edge’s Sia Nejad is looking to extend a 31-13 (+1615) run on NFL player prop picks with a passing prop in the Thursday night game. Those picks and more are available for SportsLine members on the website or the CBS Sports app.
Sportsbook betting promos for Rams vs. 49ers on TNF
Those looking to bet on Thursday night’s NFC West clash may want to consider doing so with the current DraftKings Sportsbook promotion. New users at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins. DraftKings is also offering a Same Game Parlay Boost for TNF that all users can opt in to.
Check out more welcome promotions from key sportsbooks below.
What to know before betting Rams vs. 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
Injuries
Tight end Tyler Higbee isn’t listed above because he has been on injured reserve all season, but he may make his season debut as he has been practicing in full. Last season, Higbee caught 47 passes for 495 yards and two scores.
Trends
The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games, 6-1 ATS in their past seven on Thursday and 7-1 ATS in their past eight December matchups. They are 6-1 SU in the past seven against the NFC West. The Under is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ past five Week 15 games. The third-quarter Over is 14-4 in the team’s past 18 games overall, the fourth-quarter Over is 11-7 in that span, and the second-half Over is 11-4 in the previous 15.
San Francisco 49ers
Injuries
San Francisco will be down to its fourth-string tailback if Guerendo can’t play with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both on injured reserve. The All-Pros Bosa and Williams have each missed the past three games, but the 49ers could get their star pass rusher back on Thursday. Another All-Pro, linebacker Fred Warner, has been playing through a fractured bone in his ankle sustained in Week 4 against the Patriots. Another excellent linebacker, Greenlaw, could play for the first time since tearing his Achilles tendon in the Super Bowl.
Trends
The Niners are 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, 4-10 ATS in their past 14 at home and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against the NFC. They are 1-4 SU in their past five against the NFC West. The Under is 6-3 in the team’s past nine Thursday home games and 15-7 in its past 22 overall. But the third-quarter Over is 14-6 in San Francisco’s past 20 overall. It has covered the second-half spread in just five of the past 22.
Weather in Santa Clara, Calif.
You can expect just about anything weather-wise in the San Francisco Bay area in mid-December, but it looks like it should be pretty nice Thursday night in Santa Clara, relatively speaking: Partly cloudy. Low 42F. Winds light and variable. It’s the first outdoor game for the Rams since a 28-22 win at New England in Week 11.
The matchup
Los Angeles has a minor advantage here in that it didn’t have to travel on the short week — although it’s not like the Niners had to travel far — but how much might the Rams have left in the tank after their wild 44-42 home win over Buffalo on Sunday? The Bills became the first team in NFL history to score at least six touchdowns with zero turnovers and lose the game. Teams were previously 245-0 in those scenarios in the Super Bowl era. It was also the first game ever in which both teams teams scored at least 40 points without turning the ball over. Since the team’s Week 6 bye, the Rams have won six of eight, with five of the victories by seven or fewer points.
Matthew Stafford was 23-for-30 for 320 yards, two TDs and no picks in the Buffalo win to become the 15th QB in league history to beat at least 30 different teams. The veteran now has 10 passing scores and zero interceptions in his past four — only the third time in his likely Hall of Fame career that Stafford has posted four consecutive games with a least two passing TDs and zero picks. He’s -145 for at least two TD passes Thursday and -120 to throw a pick.
Stafford now has 733 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the past four games when targeting star wide receievers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Stafford improved to 11-5 in the past two seasons when those two and top running back Kyren Williams all play. He has 35 TD passes and seven picks in those 16 games with 4,381 yards. Stafford has a 5-7 record with eight TDs and 11 picks in all other games the past two seasons. In his primetime career, Stafford is 12-22 straight up and 6-8 with Los Angeles.
Nacua had quite the game against the Bills with 12 catches for 162 yards and a TD while also rushing for a score to become only the fourth player this century with at least 150 receiving yards, one receiving score and a rushung TD. It was Nacua’s fourth career 150-yard receiving game. Since the merger, the NFL record for most such games in a player’s first two seasons combined is five each by Hall of Famers Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. Nacua’s 2,194 career receiving yards are the second-most of any player through his first 25 games since 1970 behind Odell Beckham Jr. Nacua’s total is set at 88.5 yards for this one.
Williams led the team with 29 carries for 87 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills. He has rushed for at least 60 yards in 11 consecutive games, tied with Eric Dickerson for the longest streak in franchise history. For Thursday, Williams is set at over/under 72.5 rushing yards and is the overall -165 favorite for an anytime TD. He’s third in the league with 14 total TDs (12 rushing, two receiving) and his 29 total TDs since the start of last year lead the NFL.
Los Angeles was 11-for-15 on third down against Buffalo, a season-best efficiency of 73.3% that was the team’s highest in a game since December 2001. The 49ers defense enters allowing the sixth-highest third-down conversion rate by opponents at 43.9%.
Rams coach Sean McVay is 23-11 SU and 23-10-1 ATS in December in his head coaching career and 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS in the month since 2021. In December primetime games since 2019, his teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. However, the Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS in primetime road games since 2022 and 0-3 ATS as road dogs this season, compared to 3-0 ATS as road favorites.
San Francisco snapped a three-game skid Sunday by trashing visiting Chicago 38-13. The Bears were out-gained 319-4 in the first half. It was the largest first-half yardage differential for the Niners in any game since at least 1991 and the Bears’ fewest first-half yardage total since then. The 38 points were a season high in San Francisco’s first game since losing No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey and No. 2 RB Jordan Mason to regular season-ending injuries (they might be back if the club makes the playoffs).
The team had totaled just 37 points during the three-game slide. Rookie RB Isaac Guerendo made his first start Sunday and finished with career-high 128 yards from scrimmage (7.5 yards per touch) and had a pair of touchdowns before a foot injury sent him to the locker room in the fourth quarter, and as we noted above he’s iffy. Fourth-year pro Patrick Taylor is next up. He’s -125 for an anytime TD right now at DrafKings, and did score Sunday, but that price is likely to jump if/when Guerendo is ruled out.
Brock Purdy was a very efficient 20-for-25 passing for 325 yards and two TDs with no picks vs. Chicago and set season highs in completion (80%), yards per attempt (13.0) and passer rating (145.4). It was his sixth career game with a passer rating of at least 140, the most such games by a quarterback in his first three seasons in NFL history. The former Mr. Irrelevant leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7) after also leading in 2023 (9.6) and can become the sixth player since 1970 to lead the NFL in that category in consecutive seasons along with Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw and Ken Anderson — all but Rivers won at least one MVP in their careers. Purdy is +390 for another 300-yard game.
With 151 receiving yards vs. the Bears, George Kittle registered his fifth career game with 150 or more receiving yards, making him the third tight end in NFL history with five such games in a career, joining Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe (six games) and future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce (five). Kittle is set at O/U 56.5 yards for this one.
San Francisco is 1-3 SU and ATS vs. the NFC West this year despite leading in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter of each game; the team was 11-1 in divisional regular-season games the previous two seasons. It is 0-4 ATS in its past four home NFC West games, but 4-0 SU and ATS in its past four Thursday games overall — three of those involved Seattle. Purdy started each and totaled eight TD passes and one pick. He has thrown just one INT in his past five games this year and didn’t earlier against L.A., and thus Under 0.5 picks Thursday is the -145 favorite.
