None of the previous four Kentucky Derby winners entered the first leg of the Triple Crown off a victory, which may surprise those making 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. With high-profile races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby like the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby, the top 3-year-old horses need to earn their spot in the Run for the Roses, but that doesn’t need to come via a victory. Of those the last four Kentucky Derby winners, three finished in the top three in their final Kentucky Derby prep races, so is that a trend you should expect to continue when evaluating the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses for the Kentucky Derby 2025 on Saturday, May 3?
Journalism, the 3-1 favorite, won the Santa Anita Derby and is followed by Sandman and Sovereignty at 8-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby, but Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman failed to win his previous two races before the Arkansas Derby, his first Grade 1 stakes race. Sandman has won three of eight career races, but is winless in three appearances at Churchill Downs.
Despite victories at the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, Sandman’s trainer, Mark E. Casse, has never won a Kentucky Derby. Sandman has run against Sovereignty at Churchill Downs once before and finished third in Sovereignty’s victory in the Street Sense. At 8-1 odds, Menez doesn’t see value in Sandman in this 2025 Kentucky Derby field and doesn’t see him as the horse to break Casse’s winless streak at the Kentucky Derby. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.