Welcome to the Week 17 picks and let me be the first to wish you a Merry Christmas, but that’s only to the people who are reading this on or before Dec. 25. If you’re reading this after Christmas, then happy early new year. And if you’re reading this five years down the road because you found it on the internet after you Googled “Who was the fourth-handsomest NFL writer at CBS Sports in the 2020s,” then I hope you found what you’re looking for.
Anyway, we’re about to begin one of the wildest weeks in NFL history and that starts with the fact that we have two Wednesday games this week. There have only been two Wednesday games in the NFL over the past 74 years and we’re going to double that total on Christmas. As if that’s not unusual enough, both games are going to be on Netflix, which will mark the first time ever that Netflix is showing NFL games.
I was going to offer to share my Netflix password with all of you guys, but I’ve been told that Netflix frowns upon that. Although I can’t share my password, I can share my picks, so lets get to them.
NFL Week 17 picks
Kansas City (14-1) at Pittsburgh (10-5)
Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET (Netflix)
I’m not sure what’s on Mike Tomlin’s Christmas list, but I have to think he’ll be asking Santa for a defensive game plan that can stop Patrick Mahomes, because that’s one thing Tomlin hasn’t been able to figure out how to do in his career. Tomlin has been one of the best coaches in the NFL over the past 17 years…. except when he faces Mahomes.
In three career games against Mahomes, including the playoffs, the Steelers have gone 0-3 and the Chiefs have AVERAGED 40 points per game. Let’s take a look at how Mahomes has done against the Steelers defense:
- September 2018: Mahomes throws for 326 yards and six touchdowns in a 42-37 win.
- December 2021: Mahomes throws for 258 yards and three touchdowns in a 36-10 win.
- January 2022: Mahomes throws for 404 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-21 win.
Mahomes is averaging 329.3 passing yards and 4.7 touchdown passes per game against the Steelers. Over an entire 17-game season, that would average out to 5,598 yards and 79.9 touchdown passes. Sure, these teams haven’t played since January 2022, but there’s no reason to think that anything is going to change in this game.
These big games aren’t just happening because Mahomes is a great quarterback, it’s also happening because Andy Reid knows how to exploit every weakness the Steelers have on defense. Reid knows what Tomlin is going to do before Tomlin know what Tomlin is going to do.
I feel like the only way the Steelers have a chance is if Mahomes is extremely hobbled by his injured ankle in this game, which is certainly possible. His ankle got a big test on Saturday, and it passed that test, but this is an even bigger test, because he now has to turn around and play another game just four days after facing the Texans.
The Chiefs have plenty of incentive to win and that mostly comes from the fact that they can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win. If they get the top seed, then Mahomes wouldn’t have to play again until Jan. 18 at the earliest, which would give his ankle almost a full month to heal. The Steelers are going to need a Christmas miracle to pull this one off and unless this game is being moved to 34th street, I don’t see that happening (There it is, there’s the cheesy Christmas joke we all knew was coming).
The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 30 points in a single game all season, but with Mahomes going up against the Steelers defense, this feels like the spot where it might actually happen.
The pick: Chiefs 31-24 over Steelers
Baltimore (10-5) at Houston (9-6)
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Netflix)
The best thing about the NFL’s Christmas doubleheader being on Netflix is that you can kill some time between games by watching a Christmas movie, and as we all know, Netflix definitely has the BEST Christmas movies. I mean, I’m trying to decide right now if I’m going to watch Hot Frosty, Single all the Way or Santa’s St. Bernards Save Christmas after the Chiefs-Steelers game ends. Single all the Way is a modern classic.
Holiday games tend to draw big audiences, which means this might be the most viewed game of the NFL season, although I’m not sure if that’s because his is a holiday game or because the the halftime show is going to feature Beyonce.
The fact that Beyonce is serving as the halftime show is almost fitting because the last time she served as headliner of an NFL halftime show came in Super Bowl XLVII. That game involved the Ravens and it was played in New Orleans. Now, here she is 12 years later doing the halftime show again in a game that involves the Ravens in a year where the Super Bowl is being played in New Orleans. That’s too many coincidences for me to overlook. I’m just going to go ahead and bet all my money now on the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl.
The one thing about Beyonce’s last halftime show is that the LIGHTS WENT OUT. The Texans are likely going to be hoping that that lights go out in this game because I feel like that’s the only way they’re going to be able to win. The Texans have struggled this year when a game turns into a shootout and there’s a good chance that’s going to happen against the Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 30.1 points per game, which isn’t good news for a Texans team that’s 1-6 this season when their opponent scores 22 points or more.
The Texans just got hit with a devastating injury (Tank Dell), they don’t really have anything to play for since they’ve already clinched the AFC South, so this feels like a spot where they might go a little conservative with their game plan. On the other hand, this game means everything to the Ravens, who would take a huge step toward winning the AFC North if they can win in Houston.
The pick: Ravens 30-20 over Texans
Denver (9-6) at Cincinnati (7-8)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
I know this game isn’t being played on Christmas, but maybe it should be, because no one does Christmas like Joe Burrow. Every year, we see quarterbacks around the NFL buy a gift or two for their offensive linemen, but no one needs to do that anymore because no one is ever going to top Burrow’s gift.
If anyone ever buys me a Japanese katana sword for Christmas, we will instantly become best friends. I would take it everywhere until I inevitably got arrested with it and then I’d probably just keep it in my office and tell everyone about the time I got arrested with it.
Speaking of the Japanese katana sword, the Bengals offensive linemen will have a lot of time to learn how to use one if Cincinnati doesn’t win this game. Going into Week 17, things are pretty simple for the Bengals: If they lose to the Broncos, they’re eliminated from the playoffs.
According to our friends at SportsLine, the Bengals have just a 6.8% chance of making the playoffs. Now, I’m not good at math, but I have to say, those odds make it feel like they don’t have a good chance of getting into the postseason. However, that DOESN’T MEAN IT CAN’T HAPPEN.
The odds also said that a movie about a swashbuckling cat would never work, but Puss in Boots is one of the greatest cat movies ever made. Also, the odds said Trent Dilfer would never win more Super Bowl rings than Jim Kelly and Dan Marino combined, but that happened. And let’s not forget, the odds also said that there’s no way that kickers would have more total NFL MVP awards than wide receivers, but that fact is actually true, so let’s not pretend like the Bengals getting into the postseason is impossible.
As a matter of fact, not only is it possible, it actually seems somewhat plausible. Here’s what their path looks like:
Bengals win out (Broncos, at Steelers)
Broncos lose out (at Bengals, Chiefs)
Dolphins lose at least one game (at Browns, at Jets)
Colts lose at least one game(at Giants, Jaguars)
OK, so that’s a lot of things that need to happen, so maybe this isn’t as plausible as I thought.
As for this game, Burrow is one one of the hottest streaks in NFL history right now.
He has thrown for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in seven straight games, and now, he gets to face a Broncos defense that gave up 497 yards to Jameis Winston in Week 13 and 284 yards to Justin Herbert in Week 16. I think what I’m trying to say is that I’m not sure the Broncos are going to be able to stop Burrow, who’s playing the quarterback position better than almost anyone in football right now.
The pick: Bengals 27-24 over Broncos
Green Bay (11-4) at Minnesota (13-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
We are 17 weeks into the NFL season and I still have no idea how good the Packers are, which seems like a crazy thing to say about an 11-4 team. Now, before you start sending me hate mail, Packers fan, let me finish my point. I know the Packers are good, and I think they might even win a playoff game, but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to beat the best teams in the NFC and that’s mostly because they haven’t done it yet.
The Packers have played four games this year against teams that currently have 10 wins or more and they’ve gone 0-4 in those games. On the other hand, they’re 10-0 against teams that have nine wins or less.
Every time the Packers face one of the top teams in the NFC, they completely melt down and find a way to lose the game. I’ll give them a pass for their Week 1 loss to the Eagles, because that game was in Brazil and as everyone knows, you can’t be blamed for anything you do wrong in Brazil.
They lost to the Vikings in Week 4 in a game where they were down 28-0 before halftime. In Week 9, they lost to the Lions in a game where they were trailing 24-6 before the third quarter was even over. In Week 14, they lost to the Lions again in a game where they fell behind 10-0 in the first half. I’m starting to notice a pattern here and that pattern is that they always seem to trip over their own feet to the start the game when they’re playing a good team.
If the Packers can avoid a slow start, then they can absolutely win this game, especially because Jordan Love will be going up against a Vikings defense that’s surrendering 248.7 yards per game through the air, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. I feel like these two teams are pretty even, but with the Packers coming off a short week after playing on Monday in Week 16 AND being forced to the road for this game, I think I have to roll with Minnesota.
The pick: Vikings 30-27 over Packers
Atlanta (8-7) at Washington (10-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The is the Kirk Cousins revenge game except I don’t think we can actually call it that since Kirk Cousins won’t be playing. Instead of getting Cousins against his former team, we’re getting an unexpected rookie showdown between Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels. And let me just say that of all the unexpected things in life, “unexpected rookie showdown” definitely ranks in the top-three behind only “unexpected free beer” and “unexpected free money.”
This is a huge game for both teams: If the Commanders win, they’ll clinch a playoff berth, but if they lose, there’s a very real chance that they could be left out of the postseason. If you’re wondering how that might happen, it’s simple: Buccaneers and Falcons go 2-0 to end the season while the Commanders go 0-2. That would leave all three teams at 10-7 and Washington would be the odd team out.
The problem with trying to predict this game is that I have no idea what Penix is going to look like. I’ve seen him play exactly one NFL game and I learned absolutely nothing because he was playing against the Giants. Penix didn’t wow me, but he also didn’t raise any red flags with his play. He made smart throws, he made safe passes and he only threw one interception, which wasn’t his fault.
Of course, I just spent all this time talking about Penix and it might not matter how he plays, because if the Falcons are going to win, it’s likely going to be because of Bijan Robinson. The Commanders are surrendering 137.4 yards per game on the ground this year, which is the third-worst number in the NFL. If Robinson goes off against Washington’s defense, we could have an upset in the making.
However, there won’t be an upset because Jayden Daniels won’t let it happen. Daniels has been absolutely clutch this year and we saw that against the Eagles in Week 16 when he threw five touchdown passes, including a game-winning TD pass that came with just six seconds left.
I’m not sure we’ll see five touchdown passes again this week, but I do think the Commanders will win and part of that is because I don’t think anyone wants to win this game more than Dan Quinn. We’re not getting the Kirk Cousins revenge game, but we are getting the Dan Quinn revenge game. Quinn got fired by the Falcons in 2020 and I’m guessing that he’d love to beat them by any score except for 28-3.
The pick: Commanders 30-23 over Falcons
NFL Week 17 picks: All the rest
Seahawks 20-17 over Bears
Chargers 23-16 over Patriots
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Colts 24-13 over Giants
Bills 27-17 over Jets
Buccaneers 23-20 over Panthers
Titans 21-17 over Jaguars
Dolphins 24-10 over Browns
Lions 34-20 over 49ers
NFL Week 17 picks where I have no idea who the starting QB will be for at least one team
Derek Carr revenge game
Quick take: If Derek Carr (hand) can’t play, the NFL should postpone this game until he can because everyone in America wants to see what would be the ultimate revenge game. If Carr does play, and he loses, he’d become the first QB in history to lose to all 32 teams. That’s a juicy sub-plot.
The pick (If Derek Carr plays): Saints 19-16 over Raiders
The pick (If Derek Carr doesn’t play): Raiders 20-17 over Saints
Jalen Hurts dealing with concussion game
Quick take: The Cowboys have certainly enjoyed playing the role of spoiler over the past few weeks with wins over both the Buccaneers and Commanders. If Hurts (Concussion) can’t go, I don’t l like Kenny Pickett’s chances against the Cowboys defense.
The pick (If Jalen Hurts plays): Eagles 27-23 over Cowboys
The pick (If Jalen Hurts doesn’t play): Cowboys 23-20 over Eagles
Last week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Rams would beat the Jets in a low-scoring slugfest and guess what happened? The Rams beat the Jets, 19-9, in a low-scoring slugfest. Now, did I know that the Jets were going to become just the second team over the past 74 years to be held under 10 points in a game where they punted ZERO TIMES? Of course I did. This is the Jets we’re talking about and if any team can set some sort of bizarre record for offensive futility, it’s definitely them.
The Jets have mastered the art of the bizarre loss.
Heading into Week 8, NFL teams were a collective 750-0 in games where they scored at least 20 points with zero turnovers while holding their opponent 250 yards of offense and somehow, the Jets ended that streak in a 25-22 loss to the Patriots. If any other team had scored just nine points in a game where they punted zero times, I would have been shocked, but not with the Jets.
Worst pick: Leave it to the Raiders to win a game that even their fans wanted them to lose. Heading into Week 16, I thought for sure the Raiders would go into full tank mode so they could land the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, so I picked them to lose the Jags. I turned out to be wrong, but the joke is on the Raiders, because now, they’re going to be stuck with a pick outside the top five and they’re not going to land the quarterback they want and they’re going to be bad forever. Sorry, I don’t mean that Raiders fans. I’m just bitter about my missed pick.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you might be wondering which teams I’ve done well picking this year and here’s the answer:
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Chiefs (13-2), Raiders (12-3), Broncos (12-3), Titans (12-3)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (13 straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (7-8), Ravens (7-8), Steelers (7-8), Cardinals (7-8)
Longest losing streak: Panthers (Two straight incorrect picks)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 16: 11-5
SU overall: 155-85
Against the spread in Week 16: 8-7-1
ATS overall: 122-113-5
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably Googling to see who the fourth-handsomest NFL writer at CBS Sports actually is.
