The No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions will try to maintain their impressive start to the College Football Playoff when they face the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 2025 Orange Bowl on Thursday night, with the winner advancing to the national championship game. Penn State has cruised to victories over SMU and Boise State, winning those games by a combined final score of 69-24. Notre Dame closed the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, and it has added victories over Indiana and Georgia in the CFP. The Fighting Irish have two fewer days to prepare for this game after the Sugar Bowl was postponed from New Year’s Day to Jan. 2.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Notre Dame is favored by 1.5 points in the latest Penn State vs. Notre Dame odds, while the over/under is 46.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Notre Dame is the -126 favorite (risk $126 to win $100) on the money line. Before locking in any Notre Dame vs. Penn State picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it went 43-35 on all top-rated picks this season while also nailing all four first-round College Football Playoff winners. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.
The model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Notre Dame. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State game:
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State spread: Notre Dame -1.5
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State over/under: 46.5 points
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State money line: Notre Dame -126, Penn State +106
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State picks: See picks here
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Penn State can cover
Penn State has dominated its first two opponents in the College Football Playoff, crushing SMU and Boise State to advance to the semifinals. Junior quarterback Drew Allar finished with just 171 passing yards in the win over the Broncos, but he had three touchdowns. The Nittany Lions leaned heavily on their rushing attack, which racked up 216 yards and a score.
Their defense has held seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer, including a narrow loss to Ohio State in November. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games, and their two losses during the regular season came against top-five teams. Notre Dame is playing on shorter rest after the Sugar Bowl was pushed back by one day, giving Penn State an edge in that category. See which team to pick here.
Why Notre Dame can cover
Notre Dame has been arguably the most consistently impressive team in college football since September, rattling off a 12-game winning streak following a shocking loss to Northern Illinois. More importantly for bettors, the Fighting Irish have covered the spread in 10 consecutive games. They notched a 23-10 win over No. 2 seed Georgia in the quarterfinals, with Jayden Harrison providing a huge moment with a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown to open the second half.
Versatile veteran quarterback Riley Leonard had more than 200 passing yards against Indiana before rushing for 80 yards against Georgia. On the other side of the ball, this will be the second-best passing defense that Penn State has faced this season. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games against teams with top-25 scoring defenses. See which team to pick here.
How to make Penn State vs. Notre Dame picks
The model has simulated Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the Orange Bowl 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Penn State vs. Notre Dame in the 2025 College Football Playoff, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since its inception, and find out.
