Magomed Ankalaev has been waiting for a second crack at becoming light heavyweight champion. He gets that chance when he faces superstar champion Alex Pereira in the main event of UFC 313 on Saturday.
Pereira moved up to light heavyweight one fight after losing the middleweight title in his rematch with Israel Adesanya. It only took two fights for Pereira to claim the light heavyweight crown, which he has successfully defended three times since. Ankalaev has been seen as Pereira’s toughest fight in the division and hungry to win the title after a UFC 282 fight with Jan Blachowicz for the vacant belt ended in a draw.
The co-main event sees a high-level rematch between top strikers after Dan Hooker was forced to withdraw with a hand injury. Justin Gaethje is set to take on Rafael Fiziev at lightweight with a ton at stake. Gaethje is coming off of one of the most devastating knockouts of all time at the hands of Max Holloway in 2024. Fiziev has not been seen since suffering a brutal knee injury in 2023 that forced him into a TKO loss to Matuesz Gamrot. The winner will be well positioned for another big fight in 2025.
The rest of the main card features more lightweights and a women’s strawweight contest. The featured bout pits a rising prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes against veteran Jalin Turner. Bahamondes is riding high after a pair of first-round knockouts in 2024. Turner, meanwhile, is looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Renato Moicano. Plus, Iasmin Lucindo is set to face veteran Amanda Lemos in a key 115-pound bout. And another veteran opens the festivities when King Green (formerly Bobby Green) battles rising contender Mauricio Ruffy.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 313: Magomed Ankalaev gets his shot at being the ‘final boss’ for Alex Pereira at light heavyweight
Brian Campbell
UFC 313 fight card, odds
- Alex Pereira (c) -120 vs. Magomed Ankalaev +100, light heavyweight title
- Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Justin Gaethje +130, lightweights
- Jalin Turner -130 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +110, lightweights
- Iasmin Lucindo -140 vs. Amanda Lemos +120, women’s strawweights
- Mauricio Ruffy -500 vs. King Green +380, lightweights
- Curtis Blaydes -320 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +250, heavyweights
- Joshua Van -190 vs. Rei Tsuruya +160, bantamweights
- Armen Petrosyan -150 vs. Brunno Ferreira +125, middleweights
- Carlos Leal -700 vs. Alex Morono +500, welterweights
- Mairon Santos -300 vs. Francis Marshall +240, featherweights
- Djorden Santos -195 vs. Ozzy Diaz +165, middleweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 313 picks, predictions
| Pereira (c) vs. Ankalaev | Pereira | Pereira | Pereira | Pereira | Ankalaev |
| Gaethje vs. Fiziev | Fiziev | Fiziev | Gaethje | Gaethje | Gaethje |
| Turner vs. Bahamondes | Turner | Bahamondes | Turner | Turner | Bahamondes |
| Lucindo vs. Lemos | Lucindo | Lucindo | Lucindo | Lucindo | Lemos |
| Ruffy vs. Green | Green | Ruffy | Ruffy | Ruffy | Ruffy |
Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Campbell: This is the true matchup for anyone (Ankalaev included) who believes UFC matchmaking has carefully kept one of its biggest stars away from anyone who could expose him on the ground. The only issue with this is that Ankalaev, despite having the grappling accolades and upbringing in Dagestan, Russia, hasn’t utilized his wrestling all that much throughout his current run to title contention. Ankalaev is a well-rounded fighter who believes in his striking ability just as much as his grappling, which could become his biggest issue should he begin to feel comfortable trading with Pereira at close range. While it should be expected that Ankalaev has some success taking Pereira down, keeping him there (and punishing him for it) is another thing altogether. Pereira is where he is at in such record time after transitioning from kickboxing because of his ability to find ways to win in difficult situations. Ankalaev represents a very challenging threat to “Poatan” but not one he can’t figure out.
Brookhouse: I’ve been consistent in saying that Ankalaev as a wrestling threat is overrated. He does have a solid wrestling base, but he averages less than one takedown landed per 15 minutes of action and also has a takedown accuracy of just 31%. While Ankalaev does have a clear wrestling advantage over Pereira, Pereira’s wrestling has gotten better fight over fight. Add to that Ankalaev’s tendency to want to strike rather than wrestle, and you have to give the edge to Pereira in a pure striking battle. I expect this to be a close fight where Ankalaev does have moments where he decides to shift into a grappling mode but that Pereira will edge things out by having the more meaningful moments on the feet.
Mahjouri: How much Pereira’s grappling has evolved is anyone’s guess. The champion told CBS Sports his ground game has improved drastically, but we haven’t seen it field tested. That is because Pereira’s last four fights came against other strikers. I’m not sold on the narrative that Ankalaev is a wrestling savant, but he’s far and away Pereira’s most well-rounded title challenger. Pereira is the superior striker and Ankalaev has a habit of poor decision making in crucial moments. If Pereira can defend takedowns without gassing himself out, he will find the KO.
Wise: All of the points above are totally fair and justifiable. And yet, I can’t shake the suspicion that UFC intentionally delayed this matchup for a reason. Ankalaev has the ability to be a come-forward destroyer in the same vein as Pereira. And Pereira has shown that he can be hurt by big counter shots. While the Brazilian champion has earned every accolade he has received since coming to the promotion, the delay on this matchup and the bookmakers would suggest that there is something to be exposed in Pereira against a well-rounded fighter like Ankalaev.
Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Campbell: Nearly two years to the day since he lost a disputed majority decision in their first meeting at UFC 268, Fiziev has returned healthy for his rematch against Justin Gaethje despite taking the fight on just 10 days’ notice due to a hand injury suffered by Dan Hooker. Fiziev has been idle for 18 months after a knee injury led to a TKO defeat against Mateusz Gamrot. Not only was Fiziev competitive with Gaethje the first time around, he was greatly affected by an eye poke that compromised his vision. But a lot has happened in two years, including Gaethje getting knocked out cold by Max Holloway in the final second of their five-round, BMF title bout at UFC 300 last April. At 36, too many questions remain about the durability of Gaethje’s chin following so many fight of the year contenders throughout his UFC run. Fiziev also succeeded in their first meeting at getting Gaethje off of his game plan and forcing him to use wrestling and backward steps to figure out a close win. Look for the fresher Fiziev to outwork him this time around and make his march back into the Top 10.
Brookhouse: Fiziev is stepping in on short notice and coming off of an injury, but Gaethje should be similarly rusty after sitting on the sidelines for just shy of a year since his brutal knockout loss at UFC 300. In their first fight, Gaethje just edged out a majority decision, but he was in serious trouble at times. Fiziev matches up with Gaehje well, which is one reason he is sitting as a favorite in betting lines despite the factors working against him, and he has all the tools to get revenge after losing their first meeting.
Mahjouri: Saturday’s co-main event comes down to which falters first: Gaethje’s chin or Fiziev’s stamina. It was true in their first fight and even truer now. Gaethje is coming off his one-punch KO loss; meanwhile, Fiziev takes the fight on short notice after an 18-month layoff. Fiziev rocked Gaethje with hard shots in the first half of the fight, but struggled with Gaethje’s relentless pressure down the stretch. I’ll hesitantly side with Gaethje, believing his chin will hold up a little longer than Fiziev’s endurance will under suboptimal conditions.
Turner vs. Bahamondes
Campbell: While it’s never easy to have confidence in a fighter coming off of a stretch of three defeats in his last four fights, a closer look at the recent slide of Turner brings about a few conditions to consider. Turner’s last bout, a third-round TKO defeat to Renato Moicano, came after Turner thought he had knocked Moicano out in the closing seconds of Round 2 and led to an argument between Turner and the referee. And Turner’s previous two defeats before that in 2023 were both by split decision against top contenders Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker. All of this likely explains why Turner is the slightest of betting underdogs against Bahamondes despite the fact that the Chilean has won five of his last six. At 29, it’s time for Turner to return to the finishing machine he was from 2020 to 2023, when he won five straight bouts by stoppage. With a chip on his shoulder, expect a very dangerous version of “The Tarantula.”
Brookhouse: This is going to be a striking battle between two fighters with a tremendous amount of reach for the division. Both men stand 6-foot-3, which is towering for 155 pounds. Both fighters also throw strikes at a high volume, though Bahamondes connects more often, with an average of 7.17 strikes landed per minute to Turner’s 5.6. Bahamondes is also a bit better defensively. In a fight that should feature nothing but striking, I’ll go with the guy that lands more and gets hit less. Bahamondes should get the stoppage at some point in a fun fight to watch.
Mahjouri: Turner’s tough losses will benefit him against a fighter with less elite experience. Turner and Bahamondes are dynamic strikers with high outputs. Turner is the more consistent and diverse finisher. Bahamondes is especially good at landing multiple shots before absorbing one in return. It could go either way, but Turner’s experience and submission skills provide him with more avenues to success.
Who wins UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
