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USD / CAD – Canadian Dollar idling


– Equities rally but US dollar retreats.

– RBA surprises with mildly dovish tilt.

– USD dollar grinds out small gains.

USDCAD: open 1.3684, overnight range 1.3660-1.3692, close 1.3666, WTI $78.34, Gold, $2313.77

The Canadian dollar is idling inside yesterday’s trading range, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts to determine direction. Unfortunately, those catalysts may not be found today. The US and Canadian economic calendars are devoid of top-tier data releases, leaving Treasury yields and equities to determine the Canadian dollar direction.

A modest shift to a risk-seeking environment sparked by the Hamas terrorist group claiming it had accepted a ceasefire proposal soured quickly when Israel denied that there was a valid proposal to accept. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) punctuated that claim by rolling tanks into the Hamas enclave of Rafah.

The news that the hostilities were continuing did not impact oil prices. West Texas Intermediate traded defensively, falling from $79.02 to $78.09 in early NY trading. Traders are also concerned about slowing global growth and rising US crude inventories. The soft oil prices are also hampering Canadian dollar gains.

EURUSD drifted in a 1.0754-1.0777 range. The positive momentum that boosted prices after last Friday’s soft nonfarm payrolls data has run its course, and traders are awaiting a fresh impetus. They didn’t get one from today’s German trade and Factory orders data and are now hoping Wall Street provides some direction.

GBPUSD traded poorly in a 1.2532-1.2572 band. The Bank of England monetary policy outlook is expected to adopt a dovish bias at Thursday’s meeting, but concerns that policymakers will reiterate it is too soon to reduce rates are limiting losses.

USDJPY sank then soared in a 153.87-154.65 band. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked intervention fears when he remarked about his meeting with the Prime Minister, saying, “I confirmed that the Bank of Japan will closely monitor the recent yen’s weakness in conducting policy.” USDJPY quickly recovered the losses because he didn’t say anything new.

AUDUSD dropped to 0.6586 from 0.6646 following the RBA monetary policy announcement. The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% but surprised markets with a somewhat dovish-sounding interest rate outlook. RBA Governor Michelle Bulloch said, “Right now we believe that rates are at the right level to achieve this, but there are risks and at this stage, the board is not ruling anything in or out.”



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