You’ll have to forgive Illinois football fans for wincing when the words “playoff contender” or “this year’s Indiana” are tossed about as liberally as they have been this offseason. Not because the comparison to Indiana is misguided — it is, as the Hoosiers were coming off a 3-9 record last season with a first-year coach while Illinois won 10 games in 2024 — but because Illinois and expectations have gone together like oil and vinegar.
You’ll hear a lot about how Illinois returns nearly every key starter from last year’s team. You’ll also hear about third-year starting quarterback Luke Altmyer, who hasn’t posted gaudy numbers the last two seasons but has routinely found ways to make big plays when his team needs him most.
What you don’t hear much about is this: the last time Illinois both started and ended a season ranked in the AP Top 25 was 1990.
Back in 1990, Illinois was coming off a 10-2 season under John Mackovic that ended with a win over Virginia in the Citrus Bowl. That team was led by Jeff George, and although he left to become the No. 1 pick in the 1990 NFL Draft, the Illini began 1990 ranked at No. 11. They barely clung on, finishing the season 8-4 and ranked No. 25.
While they’d be ranked for a few weeks in 1991, Illinois wouldn’t enter the AP Poll again until 1994 when it began the season at No. 21. The Illini would finish 7-5 and only spend three weeks in the poll that year. And it’s been a common theme for them since.
Illinois began the 1994, 2000, and 2008 seasons ranked and finished those three seasons with a combined record of 17-18. An inability to sustain success has dogged the program since the late 1950s, which is precisely what Bret Bielema was brought in to fix ahead of the 2021 season.
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Given the results of his first four years in Champaign, Bielema looks to be on track to do so. His 28 wins through four seasons are already the ninth-most in school history. His win percentage of .560 ranks fifth among Illinois coaches who coached at least 40 games, and if you bump that number up to 50 games, he’s second all-time behind Robert Zuppke, the man Illinois’ playing field is named after.
That’s why Illinois was happy to hand Bielema a lucrative contract extension this offseason. He’s brought wins and excitement to a program that has long needed it.
But Bielema himself has fallen victim to Illinois’ heated rivalry with expectations. The Illini climbed as high as No. 14 in the AP Poll during the 2022 season and No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings after a 7-1 start to the 2022 season. They’d lose four of their next five — including a tight loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor — to finish the year unranked at 8-5. While Illinois wouldn’t start 2023 in the polls, expectations were high for a team that had won eight games, and while there weren’t playoff hopes, there were legitimate hopes Illinois would get back to a bowl game. It’d mark the first time Illinois went bowling in consecutive seasons since 2010-11.
Instead, they went 5-7 as they transitioned to a first-year starter in Altmyer, and first-year defensive coordinator Aaron Henry’s unit struggled to replace some key defections. They rebounded quite nicely in 2024 and are now staring down the barrel of those expectations again.
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So, what does success look like for the Illini in 2025? The AP Preseason Top 25 won’t be released until August, but the Illini should be ranked in the top 15 based on where post-spring rankings from various media outlets. A ranking that high suggests Illinois should remain in the Big Ten title race most of the season and will be a serious contender for an at-large berth in the playoff.
While Bret Bielema would never say so publicly — he has not been shy when it comes to talking about a playoff run — given the program’s history, even if the Illini don’t end up in a playoff game, finishing the season in the top 25 would be a major step forward. It would be the first time the program had done so in 35 years. Forget about the players; some of the coaches on Illinois’ staff weren’t alive yet. Bielema was still playing for the Iowa Hawkeyes under Hayden Fry. That’s an accomplishment worth celebrating — even if it’s not the final goal
It would be proof of concept that you can build a sustained winner at Illinois. That’s ultimately why Bielema was hired. When he was playing for Iowa, Bielema was an Illinois native playing for a program that had begun to find sustained success under Fry. Bielema then went on to coach at Wisconsin under Barry Alvarez, another program that found sustained success. When he took over as head coach, Bielema sustained that success, winning three Big Ten titles.
His history of winning at programs without much history and getting those teams turned around is why he was so appealing to Illinois in the first place. So, while Illinois and outsiders can throw out the word “playoff” with reckless abandon, it shouldn’t be playoff or bust in Champaign.
The real goal should be to keep winning and prove this team was more than a one-hit wonder. Any other honors that come with those victories will be icing on the cake.