Why Mike McCarthy could leave Cowboys even if Jerry Jones wants to keep him

Deadlines tend to make deals when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys, and the team’s deadline to make a decision about whether or not to retain head coach Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff is fast approaching.

McCarthy and his staff’s five-year coaching contracts that started in the 2020 season will expire on Jan. 14, so Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones will have just under 10 days to make a decision about whether or not to retain his current head coach. McCarthy made it clear on a conference call on Friday that he and Jones will begin talks about his future after the Cowboys’ (7-9) Week 18 home game against the Washington Commanders (11-5). 

“We have not had conversations, and I do just anticipate that we’ll stay on a schedule that’s similar to what we’ve done in the past,” McCarthy said on a conference call on Friday. “That would mean we would start our meetings next week and go through the evaluation process.”    

Jones made it a point to say on Friday the results of Sunday’s Week 18 finale won’t be a critical factor in his decision-making process. 

“The hay is in the barn as far as our staff is concerned,” Jones said, via The Athletic, on 105.3 The Fan on Friday. … “I don’t think something would happen out here Sunday that would impact where we’re gonna be as we go forward.”    

So what does McCarthy’s Dallas resume look like? He has led Dallas to a 49-34 record in his nearly complete five seasons in charge that includes a run of three consecutive 12-5 seasons from 2021 to 2023. The two years the team has missed the playoffs under McCarthy, 2020 and 2024, have included critical injuries, including season-enders for quarterback Dak Prescott (fractured ankle in 2020, hamstring tear in 2024). The hang up with those three 12-5 campaigns is that they finished with a combined 1-3 record in the postseason, making those 2021-2023 Cowboys the first team to win at least 12 games three years in a row and not make a conference championship game since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

Let’s take a look and lay out the three ways McCarthy’s and Jones’ conversations could conclude after the two parties sit down to evaluate the 2024 season and beyond.   

Jones re-signs McCarthy to a new contract

CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported on Saturday that Dallas sources believe McCarthy will return on a new contract. If McCarthy does return, it means he wants to come back, and that Jones takes some of the blame for how the 2024 “get it done with less”  campaign unfolded. 

Face of the franchise quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring tear), All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (AC joint sprain in right shoulder), future Hall of Fame right guard Zack Martin (ankle), four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (foot), Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) and ascending, second-year linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (knee), among others, ended the season on injured reserve. Dallas has spent an NFL-low $19.3 million in free agency since the last Super Bowl, per OverTheCap.com, leaning almost exclusively on the draft to supplement their roster after losing eight players in free agency, tied for the third-most in a single offseason in team history. 

That led to Dallas starting rookies at both left tackle — first-round pick Tyler Guyton (played predominantly at right tackle at Oklahoma) — and center — third-round pick Cooper Beebe (never took a game rep at center at Kansas State). Beebe improved after a bumpy start, and Guyton flashed potential but consistency is something he’ll need to work on in 2025. Defensively, Dallas leaned on 2023 first-round pick Mazi Smith to anchor the interior of their defensive line after an underwhelming rookie campaign. The Cowboys also started the year with fifth-round rookie Caelen Carson as a starting outside corner opposite Diggs with 2023 first-team All-Pro DaRon Bland recovering from a stress fracture in his foot. The results weren’t great. 

Jones re-signing McCarthy would mean he acknowledged an unsuccessful roster-building approach, and that he listened to Prescott, who told CBS Sports in a one-on-one interview that he would pitch McCarthy’s return to Jones in the offseason. The Cowboys owner did take some accountability for Dallas being eliminated from postseason contention in Week 16. 

“I don’t want to get into the litany [of injuries]. There’s many things that have gone into us sitting here not in the playoffs,” Jones said postgame after the Cowboys’ 26-24 victory over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “You can start with me. I’m not trying to be any way other than a lot of people contribute to it when you win. A lot of people contribute to it when you don’t. But boy, give me that kind of effort. That kind of professionalism. Those guys came out and played as though they were fighting in the [NFC] Championship game to go to the Super Bowl. I can’t tell you how proud I am of them and the coaching staff. It really shows me something.”  

Jones announces he is parting ways with McCarthy

Jones claimed the 2025 NFL coaching carousel candidates wouldn’t be a major factor in his decision-making process with his McCarthy decision on Friday. 

‘”Not a lot,” Jones said, via The Athletic, on 105.3 The Fan on Friday. “That is a big key. But in this particular case, that is not a big factor.”  

However, the 2025 coaching carousel candidates field includes some big names like former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, to name a few. Jones could very well decide to go in a different direction this offseason. Dallas’ offense did struggle when the team was mostly healthy through the first four weeks of the year, and some of that had to with schematic stagnation.  

McCarthy decides to test the open market to get another job

There is also a third option for McCarthy. He could decide he’s had enough with Jones’ seemingly content-driven management style. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported on Saturday that there’s belief around the league McCarthy could receive another NFL head-coaching job this offseason if he hit the open market. Once Jan. 14 rolls around, McCarthy is a free agent, and the Cowboys cannot prevent him from talking to other NFL teams.

The former Super Bowl champion head coach has connections with multiple teams who have vacancies. McCarthy was the New Orleans Saints offense coordinator at the start of the 21st Century (2000-2004), and he spent the bulk of his career as a head coach in the NFC North with the Green Bay Packers, something the Chicago Bears are very aware of. After handling the intensity of the Cowboys’ media environment, he wouldn’t have an issue with coaching the New York Jets or Giants, who still employ an embattled Brian Daboll at the moment. 

McCarthy gave a politically correct answer when asked directly on Monday about his desire to remain the head coach of the Cowboys in future years, leaving the door open for all possibilities.  

“I think the biggest thing … I need to make sure I’m doing exactly what I’m asking everyone else to do. We need to finish the race,” McCarthy said when asked if he’d like to remain in Dallas. “It’s been a challenging year, based on our contract situation for coaches. It’s stating the obvious, but we’ll have time to talk about that next week.”